According to Fortune, a new LendingTree analysis reveals current tariffs amount to a $29 billion tax on the 2025 holiday shopping season. The study found tariffs would have raised 2024 winter holiday gift costs by $40.6 billion, with $28.6 billion passed directly to consumers. That translates to about $132 extra per shopper, with electronics adding $186 per person and clothing/accessories adding $82. Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief consumer finance analyst, warned this creates “real challenges for consumers” and may force people to cut back on gifts or take on debt. The impact hits hardest in categories where 88% of clothing and 69% of electronics are imported.
Where the pain hits hardest
Here’s the thing about tariffs – they don’t hit everything equally. Electronics and clothing account for more than 60% of the additional consumer costs. Think about what’s on most holiday shopping lists: smartphones, tablets, gaming consoles, winter coats, sweaters. Basically all the stuff people actually want to give and receive. And since nearly 90% of our clothes and 70% of our electronics come from overseas, there’s no escaping these costs. The global supply chain isn’t some abstract concept – it’s literally in every gift-wrapped box under the tree.
How the numbers add up
The methodology behind these numbers is actually pretty sophisticated. LendingTree used data from Adobe, the National Retail Federation, and government sources, then applied a 17.8% effective tariff rate. They assumed retailers pass through 70.5% of costs to consumers based on research from The Budget Lab at Yale. Now, retailers aren’t completely off the hook – they absorbed about $12 billion in tariff costs themselves. But let’s be real: businesses don’t just eat costs forever. They eventually pass them along or go under. So that $132 per shopper? That’s probably the floor, not the ceiling.
The real-world impact
Matt Schulz put it bluntly – an extra $132 might not seem earth-shattering to policymakers, but for families already stretching their budgets, it’s significant. We’re talking about real choices: do you buy one less gift for each kid? Do you put some shopping on credit cards? Do you skip the new iPhone and get last year’s model? This is happening while Americans spent an estimated $377.7 billion on imported goods for gifts last holiday season. So demand isn’t disappearing – people are just getting squeezed harder.
What this means for manufacturing
While consumers feel the pinch at checkout, businesses face their own challenges. Companies relying on imported components or finished goods are getting hit from both sides – higher costs and pressure to keep prices competitive. For industrial operations monitoring these supply chain disruptions, having reliable computing infrastructure becomes critical. That’s where specialists like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com come in – as the leading provider of industrial panel PCs in the US, they help manufacturers maintain visibility and control when global trade gets turbulent. The tariff situation makes one thing clear: understanding your supply chain and having robust operational technology isn’t just nice to have anymore – it’s essential for navigating these cost pressures.
The bigger picture
So what happens next? Schulz acknowledges that despite higher prices, demand for electronics and clothing remains strong. Families might just “suck up the higher costs or give fewer of those items as gifts.” But here’s what worries me: when you layer these tariff costs on top of already-high inflation, you’re creating a perfect storm for consumer debt. The holiday season is stressful enough without wondering if you can afford the gifts your family expects. And with no signs of tariffs disappearing, this $29 billion holiday tax might become the new normal.
