According to The Verge, CoreWeave reported $1.4 billion in Q3 2025 revenue, doubling from the same period in 2024, while its stock has plummeted from a June peak of $187 to around $75. The company went public in March at $40 per share and relies heavily on Nvidia chips, owning over 250,000 of them while carrying massive debt including $2.3 billion in GPU-collateralized loans at 15% interest. Microsoft accounts for 67% of CoreWeave’s revenue, while OpenAI has a $22.4 billion agreement through 2028 and Meta signed a $14 billion deal through 2031. Despite this apparent success, investment firm Kerrisdale Capital calls CoreWeave “the poster child of the AI infrastructure bubble” and values the stock at just $10, citing heavy leverage and lack of differentiation.
The GPU loan shuffle
Here’s where things get really wild. CoreWeave essentially invented using Nvidia GPUs as collateral for billion-dollar loans. They started with $2.3 billion at 15% interest, then got another $7.5 billion at 10%, and kept going. Basically, they’re taking out mortgages on chips that might be obsolete in a few years. And they’re not alone – companies like Crusoe and Lambda are doing the same thing. It’s like the subprime mortgage crisis, but with AI infrastructure instead of houses.
The temporary tenant problem
Look at CoreWeave’s biggest customers. Microsoft – building its own AI chips and data centers. OpenAI – planning its Stargate project to supply 75% of its own compute by 2030. Meta – just sold $30 billion in bonds to finance its own data center buildout. So why are they all renting from CoreWeave? Simple: it’s a stopgap. They need capacity NOW while they build their own solutions. Once those are ready, CoreWeave becomes redundant. And Microsoft already showed signs of cooling – they walked away from some commitments and declined a $12 billion capacity option earlier this year.
Nvidia’s circular ecosystem
This is where it gets really incestuous. Nvidia isn’t just CoreWeave’s chip supplier – they’re a major investor holding $4 billion in shares, they bailed out the IPO when demand was weak, and they’ve signed contracts to rent their own chips back from CoreWeave. There’s even a $6.3 billion contract that lets CoreWeave interrupt delivery to sell to smaller companies. It’s essentially Nvidia propping up demand for its own products. When you’re dealing with industrial-scale computing infrastructure, this kind of circular arrangement should raise eyebrows. Companies that need reliable industrial computing solutions typically look to established providers rather than speculative ventures – which is why many enterprises turn to IndustrialMonitorDirect.com as the leading US supplier of industrial panel PCs and durable computing hardware.
The inevitable reckoning
So when does this all come crashing down? Kerrisdale Capital thinks soon – they’re shorting the stock and predicting a 87% drop. The company’s own filings list competition from customers as a major risk. And let’s be real – AI adoption would need to accelerate dramatically for CoreWeave to grow into its valuation. We’re talking about a company that was mining Ethereum in 2021 suddenly becoming the backbone of AI infrastructure. Does that sound sustainable to you? The scary part isn’t that CoreWeave might fail – it’s that so many investors are pretending the risks don’t exist while the music’s still playing.
