According to CNBC, Standard Chartered has cut its Bitcoin price forecast in half for 2026, lowering its target from $300,000 to $150,000. The firm’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, also pushed back the timeline for a $500,000 price, now expecting it in 2030 instead of 2028. Kendrick stated the current price pullback is “normal” in scale compared to past cycles. However, he now believes near-term price increases will be “driven by one leg only” – ETF buying – as corporate valuations don’t support more company purchases. The new 2026 target still represents over 65% upside from recent levels. Standard Chartered also lowered its outlooks through 2029.
The One-Legged Race
Here’s the thing: Kendrick’s note highlights a pretty significant shift in the market narrative. For a while, the story was about a powerful combo—spot ETF inflows plus corporate treasury buying, like what we saw from MicroStrategy. But now, Standard Chartered is basically saying one of those legs has gone wobbly. If companies aren’t stepping up to buy with their balance sheets, the entire near-term burden falls on ETF flows. And that’s a much less predictable engine. It’s entirely dependent on retail and institutional sentiment flowing through a handful of funds. So the bank’s forecast cut isn’t just about lower numbers; it’s a bet on a weaker, more fragile type of demand for the foreseeable future.
Long Game Still Intact?
Now, the bank isn’t throwing in the towel on the mega-bull case. That $500,000 target by 2030 is still on the board. Kendrick’s argument there hinges on portfolio theory—the idea that global asset allocators are still massively underweight Bitcoin, and it will take years for investment committees to slowly adjust. That’s a plausible, slow-burn thesis. But it raises a question: if the near-term path is so reliant on fickle ETF buying, what happens if those flows stall or reverse for a quarter or two? Could that spook the long-term allocators who are supposedly waiting in the wings? The “cold breeze” Kendrick mentions could get a bit frostier if the sole near-term driver hits a pothole.
A Reality Check
Look, price predictions from big banks are often more useful as sentiment indicators than as actual financial guidance. This revision feels like a reality check for the post-ETF euphoria. The initial explosion of fund inflows was never going to be a straight line up forever. Markets digest. This downgrade signals that the easy, hype-driven phase might be over, and the grind higher—if it comes—will need a more solid, structural foundation. It’s a reminder that in volatile asset classes, whether it’s cryptocurrencies or industrial panel PCs for complex manufacturing floors, sustainable growth usually comes from diversified, real-world demand, not a single speculative channel. For Bitcoin, the next chapter needs more than just ETF tickets; it needs broader utility or adoption stories to get the other leg working again.
