According to Forbes, SoftBank Group shares tumbled nearly 11% on Tuesday before recovering slightly to close down 9.95% at ¥15,390 ($98.5). The stock drop follows a 10.9% decline last Friday as Tokyo markets reopened, hitting the company’s lowest level since mid-September. CEO Masayoshi Son’s net worth plunged by $4.9 billion to $49.3 billion in a single day, dropping him to 32nd on Forbes’ billionaire list. His ranking among Asia’s richest people fell from third to eighth place, now sitting below Uniqlo founder Tadashi Yanai. The selloff comes amid concerns about SoftBank’s massive bet on OpenAI facing new competition from Google’s Gemini 3 model.
The AI Bet That’s Backfiring
Here’s the thing about putting all your chips on one AI company – when the competition heats up, investors get nervous. And that’s exactly what’s happening with SoftBank’s massive OpenAI bet. Google‘s Gemini 3 release has apparently spooked the market, making people question whether ChatGPT’s early lead is sustainable. Basically, SoftBank went all-in on what looked like the AI frontrunner, but now the landscape is shifting dramatically.
That Nvidia Sale Looks Different Now
Remember when SoftBank sold its entire $5.83 billion Nvidia stake in October? At the time, it seemed like smart portfolio management to fund their AI investments. But now that move looks… interesting. They cashed out of the company that’s actually making money from the AI boom to double down on applications. And with Nvidia shares continuing to perform well while SoftBank tanks, that decision isn’t aging gracefully. It’s the classic case of selling your golden goose to bet on the eggs.
The Market’s Reality Check
What we’re seeing here is a classic market correction on AI hype. For months, everyone acted like OpenAI had an insurmountable lead. But Google’s resources are massive, and their AI capabilities were never going to stay behind forever. Now investors are realizing there might not be one clear winner in this race. The question is whether this is a temporary panic or a fundamental reassessment of OpenAI’s long-term prospects. My guess? Probably a bit of both.
Where This Leaves Masayoshi Son
Losing nearly $5 billion in a day has to sting, even for someone as wealthy as Son. But more importantly, it shows how exposed his fortune is to SoftBank’s AI gambles. He’s built his reputation on big, visionary bets – some that paid off spectacularly (like Alibaba) and others that haven’t. This OpenAI situation feels like it could go either way. The real test will be whether SoftBank’s AI portfolio can withstand what’s shaping up to be an incredibly competitive market. Because if Google keeps releasing strong models, the pressure on OpenAI – and SoftBank’s investment – will only intensify.
