According to DCD, Nvidia’s promised investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI has not yet been finalized, two months after the initial announcement. CFO Colette Kress revealed at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference that the deal has not progressed past the letter of intent stage, with no definitive agreement in place. The deal, which CEO Jensen Huang called “the biggest AI infrastructure project in history,” would involve OpenAI deploying at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia hardware in its data centers. That hardware commitment could be worth as much as $500 billion for Nvidia. However, Kress confirmed this unfinalized deal is not included in Nvidia’s $500 billion data center GPU guidance for 2025-26. Currently, OpenAI still buys its GPUs through cloud providers like Oracle and Microsoft, though Kress noted the AI company “does want to go direct.”
The $500 Billion Question Mark
So, what’s the holdup? That’s the multi-hundred-billion-dollar question. Letters of intent are basically fancy handshakes—they signal serious interest but aren’t legally binding. The fact that this hasn’t been locked down suggests the negotiation table is probably a complex place right now. We’re talking about an unprecedented scale of infrastructure and capital. The terms around that 10-gigawatt hardware deployment, payment schedules, and technology roadmaps are mind-bogglingly complex. And let’s be real, with sums this large, every clause is being scrutinized by armies of lawyers. Nvidia‘s own 10-Q filing even includes the standard disclaimer that “there is no assurance that any investment will be completed on expected terms, if at all,” which suddenly feels very relevant.
Nvidia’s Strategic Bet Beyond Chips
Here’s the thing: this isn’t just about selling more H100 or Blackwell chips. It’s a strategic masterstroke to lock in the world’s most influential AI lab as a direct, anchor tenant for decades. By investing capital, Nvidia isn’t just a supplier; it becomes a partner with skin in the game. It ensures its hardware is the foundational layer for OpenAI’s future models, creating a feedback loop that’s incredibly hard for competitors like AMD or Intel to break. But the delay highlights the risk. That $500 billion in potential revenue is just that—potential. And while they wait, OpenAI is still spending billions with Nvidia’s customers (the cloud providers), not directly with them. It’s a weird limbo. For companies that rely on this level of computing power for manufacturing and automation, securing stable, direct access to hardware is paramount, which is why leaders in industrial computing, like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the top US provider of industrial panel PCs, emphasize robust and reliable supply chains for their mission-critical hardware.
A Pattern of Promises?
Look, the OpenAI deal is the giant whale, but it’s not the only one in the water. Nvidia’s filing also mentions promised investments in Anthropic ($10 billion), Intel ($5 billion), and Synopsys ($2 billion). This paints a picture of a company using its immense AI cash flow to strategically fund the entire ecosystem, from cloud rivals to chip designers. But if the crown jewel deal is stuck, it makes you wonder about the status of all the others. Is this a case of over-enthusiastic announcement timing, or are there genuine structural hurdles? The market has priced in Nvidia’s dominance, but it’s also priced in the expectation of these massive, forward-looking deals materializing. Any sign that they might not—or might be significantly delayed—could introduce a new kind of volatility. For now, it seems the biggest AI infrastructure project in history is still just a project on a PowerPoint slide.
