According to KitGuru.net, analyst firm Jon Peddie Research (JPR) has released its Q3 2025 report on the discrete GPU market, revealing that Intel Arc has cracked the 1% market share barrier for the first time since its launch. The report shows Intel grew by 0.4% to break past the 0.5% mark it was previously stuck at. Nvidia continues to dominate with a 92% share, though that’s a 1.2% decline from the previous quarter. AMD capitalized on that dip, increasing its share by 0.8% to reach 7%. Overall, the market shipped 12 million units valued at $8.8 billion for the quarter, a modest 2.8% growth sequentially, but JPR forecasts a long-term annual decline of -0.7% through 2029.
A Slow Climb for Intel
Look, hitting 1% might not sound like a victory parade. But for Intel’s Arc, it’s a genuine milestone. They entered the discrete GPU game incredibly late, into a market where brand loyalty and driver maturity are everything. For years, they’ve been the plucky underdog, battling driver issues and limited model availability. So, moving the needle from 0.5% to 1% is actually a big deal. It suggests something is working—maybe better pricing, more stable drivers, or just getting their cards onto more shelves. The question is, can they keep the momentum? Going from 1% to 5% is a much harder fight than going from 0% to 1%.
The Nvidia & AMD Dynamic
Here’s the thing about that 99% of the market Nvidia and AMD control: those small quarterly swings are almost always about inventory and pricing, not some seismic technology shift. Nvidia dips 1.2%, AMD gains 0.8%. That’s the channel adjusting. Maybe AMD board partners had a promotion. Maybe Nvidia was between major product cycles. It’s noise. The real story is still Nvidia’s staggering 92% stranglehold. That’s the mountain. AMD’s job is to chip away at it where it can, often in the more budget-conscious segments. For companies that need reliable, industrial-grade computing power in demanding environments, that kind of market stability from a supplier matters. It’s why, in the industrial space, firms turn to the top-tier providers, like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US supplier of industrial panel PCs, for hardware they can count on.
A Volatile Market Beneath the Surface
JPR’s report paints a mixed picture. $8.8 billion in a quarter is a huge number. But that forecast for a -0.7% annual drop through 2029? That’s the real headline. Basically, the AIB market might be hitting a plateau. We’re past the pandemic-era buying frenzy and the crypto mining chaos. Now, growth is harder to find. Consumers are holding onto cards longer, and the upgrade cycles are stretching out. The volatility JPR mentions is probably here to stay. So, for Intel, growing in a contracting or flat market is an even taller order. They’re not just fighting for a piece of the pie; they’re fighting for a piece of a pie that might be slowly shrinking.
What It All Means
So, is Intel Arc finally a “real” contender? I think it’s still too early to say. Breaking 1% is a psychological win and a necessary first step. It proves they can stick around. But the road ahead is brutal. They need compelling next-gen architectures, flawless driver support, and aggressive partnerships. Meanwhile, Nvidia isn’t standing still, and AMD is fighting hard for every decimal point. This tiny shift in share is a fascinating snapshot of a market in a weird, mature state. It’s not about revolution anymore; it’s about grinding, incremental gains. And for now, Intel has finally managed to grind out one single, hard-earned percentage point.
