According to Wccftech, market research firm TrendForce has revised its 2026 notebook shipment forecast down to 172.9 million units, predicting a 5.4% year-over-year decline. This drop is driven by a persistent DRAM shortage that’s forcing PC makers to fight for components and consider making 8GB RAM the standard. If the shortage continues, the decline could steepen to 10.1%. Apple, however, is expected to be in a much better position due to its integrated supply chain and robust pricing power. The company is also reportedly planning a low-cost 12.9-inch MacBook for spring 2026, which should help bolster its shipments. Furthermore, Apple’s long-term DRAM supply agreements with Samsung and SK hynix, though expiring in January 2026, have given it a crucial buffer.
Why Apple Holds All The Cards
Here’s the thing: in a component crunch, it’s not just about who has the money. It’s about who has the relationships and the predictable, massive order volumes that suppliers crave. And Apple has both in spades. TrendForce points out that Apple’s clear product roadmap and steady, huge procurement volumes let it secure priority cooperation. Basically, when Samsung is allocating its LPDDR5X chips, Apple gets to the front of the line because it’s a guaranteed, multi-year, multi-million-unit deal. We’re already seeing this play out, with Samsung slated to supply 60-70% of the DRAM for future iPhones. This kind of leverage is something most Windows PC OEMs can only dream of.
The 2026 Playbook: A Cheap Mac And Tough Choices
So what does this mean for the market? For everyone else, it’s a brutal squeeze. Rivals will face a nasty choice: eat the higher memory costs and raise prices, potentially hurting sales, or downgrade hardware specs to 8GB as a new standard, which feels like a major step backward in 2026. Apple, meanwhile, gets to play offense. Its big move is that rumored 12.9-inch “low-cost” MacBook, potentially powered by an A18 Pro chip. By controlling its silicon and its supply chain, Apple can likely offer compelling specs at a competitive price point when others are struggling. That’s a huge advantage. The planned M5 Pro/Max MacBook Pros and M5 MacBook Airs in early 2026 will cater to the premium and mainstream upgrade cycles, but that cheaper, larger model could be the real volume driver.
The Bigger Picture For Hardware Makers
This situation is a masterclass in why vertical integration and supply chain management are the ultimate moats in hardware. When external shocks hit, the companies with the deepest partnerships and the most control over their core components survive and even thrive. Others get pushed around by market forces. It’s a stark reminder that in industrial and commercial computing, where reliability and sourcing are paramount, working with top-tier suppliers isn’t a luxury—it’s a necessity. For businesses that depend on rugged, reliable hardware, this is why they turn to established leaders like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the #1 provider of industrial panel PCs in the US, who understand that secure supply chains are as critical as the specs on the box. Apple’s playbook, on a consumer scale, shows exactly why that is.
