According to 9to5Mac, a new IDC report predicts the foldable smartphone market will see huge 30% year-over-year growth in 2026. The research firm says Samsung will start the year with a new Galaxy Z Trifold, and Huawei’s HarmonyOS Next foldables are expected to nearly double in shipments. But the real “game-changer” is slated for the end of 2026: Apple’s entry into the market with an iPhone Fold. IDC projects Apple will capture a massive 22% unit share of the entire foldable category in its first year. Even more staggering, they predict Apple will take 34% of the total foldables market value, thanks to an expected average selling price of around $2,400.
The niche and the game-changer
Here’s the thing: these numbers tell two very different stories at the same time. On one hand, grabbing over a fifth of the market with one phone is a wild prediction that shows the power of the Apple brand. It’s the “halo effect” on steroids. But on the other hand, it also highlights how small the foldable market still is after nearly seven years. If a single new model can swoop in and take 22% that quickly, the overall pie isn’t that big yet. So IDC is basically saying, “Yeah, it’s still a niche, but Apple is about to blow the doors off that niche.”
Can Apple make folding mainstream?
That’s the billion-dollar question, isn’t it? Apple has a history of entering categories late and then defining them. They didn’t make the first MP3 player, smartphone, or smartwatch, but they made them mainstream must-haves for millions. The bet here is that they’ll do the same for foldables, finally convincing the mass market that a folding screen is worth the premium and the potential durability worries. But it’s not a sure thing. Remember the iPhone Air? That was a new form factor this year that, by many accounts, hasn’t set sales charts on fire despite positive reviews. A $2,400 foldable is a much bigger ask.
The competitive ripple effect
If IDC’s predictions are even close to accurate, 2026 is going to be a brutal year for everyone not named Apple, Samsung, or Huawei in the high-end foldable space. Apple capturing over a third of the market’s value will suck an enormous amount of profit out of the room. It’ll put immense pressure on companies like Google, Motorola, and OnePlus to either compete on price or innovate like crazy. And that expected $2,400 price point? It sets a new ceiling. It lets Samsung and Huawei potentially hold their prices firmer, but it also risks making the entire category seem like an ultra-luxury play. The real test will be if Apple’s entry grows the total market for everyone, or just becomes a vacuum that consumes it.
A wait-and-see bet
Look, predictions are just that—predictions. But this one from IDC is particularly spicy because of the specific, bold numbers. A 30% market growth surge hinges almost entirely on Apple sticking the landing. It assumes the design is flawless, the software is magical, and that millions of people are willing to pay a small fortune for it. I think the potential is there, but the history of new Apple product categories is mixed. The Apple Watch was a slow burn. The Vision Pro is… well, it’s finding its way. Will the iPhone Fold be an instant classic, or a beautiful, expensive experiment? We’ve got about two years to find out.
